Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia Forge New Alliance Amid Rising Tensions with Ethiopia

In a significant diplomatic development, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is set to travel to Eritrea for high-level talks with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The trilateral discussions, expected to focus on the stability of the Horn of Africa, highlight rising tensions in the region, particularly involving Ethiopia’s growing influence and ambitions.

Key topics on the agenda include Ethiopia’s access to the Red Sea via Somaliland, a strategic issue that has alarmed Cairo. Egypt’s long-standing concerns over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will also feature in the talks, as it remains a point of contention between the two nations. Moreover, the conflict in Sudan is likely to be a critical issue, with the leaders exploring ways to prevent further destabilization that could spill over into neighboring countries.

Eritrea and Somalia, already linked through military cooperation—Eritrea has been training Somali forces for three years—are expected to deepen their security ties, with warnings directed at Ethiopia. The two nations have voiced their intent to protect their sovereignty and territorial integrity, signaling a unified stance that could isolate Ethiopia from regional security arrangements.

Somalia’s president has made multiple trips to Eritrea this year, underscoring the deepening alliance between the two nations. The visit comes amid Mogadishu’s tensions with Addis Ababa, which were exacerbated by Ethiopia’s controversial memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, aimed at securing a naval base in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence. This move has angered the Somali government, which accuses Ethiopia of meddling in its internal affairs and undermining its territorial integrity.

The summit between Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, Egypt’s Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia will focus on “bolstering the ties between the three countries as well as matters of regional security and stability,” Eritrea’s information ministry said on X.

Egypt’s entry into this diplomatic equation has raised alarms in Addis Ababa, with Ethiopia accusing Cairo of arming Somalia. These developments come as Ethiopia, once a key player in the Horn of Africa alliance with Eritrea and Somalia, now finds itself on the outside of this emerging tripartite framework.

Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who has already visited Eritrea several times, held separate talks with Isaias shortly after his arrival late Wednesday, Eritrea’s information ministry said on X

The regional power dynamics are in flux, and any new agreements forged between Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt may determine the Horn of Africa’s future. However, historical precedents, such as the fragile trilateral agreements signed during Somali President Farmajo’s tenure, suggest that the longevity of such alliances remains uncertain.

As the region braces for the outcomes of this diplomatic maneuvering, the stakes are high—not only for Ethiopia but for the entire Horn of Africa, where unresolved conflicts and shifting alliances continue to threaten stability.

The evolving partnerships between Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt mark a potential realignment in the Horn of Africa’s security landscape, driven by shared concerns over Ethiopia’s influence and access to strategic maritime routes. These developments are sure to draw international attention, especially as Egypt, a key player in Red Sea security, seeks to protect its economic and geopolitical interests. The impact of this alliance on Ethiopia’s regional standing and the broader African diplomatic efforts remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, the diplomatic relationship between Eritrea and Ethiopia has deteriorated in recent months, despite Eritrean troops having supported Ethiopia in the 2020-2022 war. Ethiopian Airlines recently suspended its flights to Asmara, citing “difficult” operating conditions—a move that followed an ultimatum from the Eritrean government. The halt in flights underscores the growing strain between the two nations, as do reports that phone lines between Eritrea and Ethiopia have been cut off, echoing past periods of tension.

Ethiopian Airlines recently suspended its flights to Asmara, citing “difficult” operating conditions—a move that followed an ultimatum from the Eritrean government. The halt in flights underscores the growing strain between the two nations, as do reports that phone lines between Eritrea and Ethiopia have been cut off, echoing past periods of tension.

Neither the Ethiopian nor Eritrean governments have issued official statements regarding these disruptions, leaving many questions unanswered about the future trajectory of their relations. The reemerging tensions between the two historically contentious neighbors are reminiscent of decades-long strains marked by intermittent communication cutoffs and diplomatic disengagement.